GGL says novelty bets and prediction markets cannot be licensed in Germany
The GGL stated that bets on social, political or economic events are not licensable in Germany and that taking part from Germany may be a crime.
By Oliwer Brewitz, Head of Marketing
Key changes
- Novelty bets on social, political or economic events not licensable
- Taking part from Germany not permitted and possibly a criminal offence
- Effective exclusion of German users is relevant to legality
What changed
On 13 August 2026 the GGL published information on the legal risks of novelty bets (Gesellschaftswetten) and prediction markets. Bets on the outcome of social, political, economic or other events are not licensable in Germany, and taking part from Germany is not permitted and may be a criminal offence. Whether an offer is unlawful depends on whether people in Germany can access it; a provider that effectively excludes German users is not automatically offering unauthorised gambling in Germany. In June 2026 the GGL had also joined a joint statement of European regulators on the challenges posed by prediction markets.
What it means for advertising
Because these offers cannot be licensed, advertising them in Germany is advertising for unlicensed gambling. The GGL also said media covering the topic should tell readers that such bets are not permitted in Germany. Publishers, ad networks and affiliates should be careful with prediction-market sponsorship, odds displays and content aimed at German users. Licensed operators that partner with such platforms risk breaching their licence conditions on advertising.
What operators should do
Licensed operators should not offer or promote novelty or event bets in Germany. Media owners should check that any prediction-market advertiser effectively geoblocks Germany before accepting campaigns, and should avoid editorial integrations that display such markets to German users. Affiliates should remove links to these platforms from German-facing pages. Compliance teams should add novelty and event bets to their lists of prohibited content for German campaigns.
Full rules: Germany regulation brief · All Germany updates